A quick weekly overview of where the mortgage markets are, where they have been, and where they are expected to go.

Looking Back: In the previous week, we again saw a great deal of volatility in mortgage rates, this time mostly negative–we end the week with mortgage prices roughly 120bps worse than where they started the week.

Right Now: For the “ideal” borrower (i.e. down payment on a purchase or equity for a refinance of at least 20%, FICO score of 740 or higher, and paying 1 discount point, with loan amounts of $417k or less on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage) in the DC area, rates are currently in the 5.250% to 5.500% range.

Moving Forward: Technical indicators still imply that the markets underlying rates might improve, but better-than-expected economic news has triggered a stock rally that is pulling money away from mortgage bonds, driving rates up. In Bankrate’s weekly survey of mortgage analysts about where they expect rates to move in the next 45 days, 50% predicted that rates would go up, 25% predicted that rates would stay roughly level, and 25% predicted that rates would go down over that period.

These updates are intended to give you a very quick snapshot of current mortgage rate trends. As a result, they are full of simplifications and assumptions; if you are currently in the process of purchasing or refinancing a loan, make sure to talk to your mortgage loan consultant about your specific scenario and the factors that affect it. If you aren’t working with a loan consultant yet, feel free to contact us and we’d be glad to meet with you for one of our free, no-obligation mortgage scenario consultations. And if you’re a data junkie and want to follow the gyrations of the mortgage markets in real time, learn about the shorthand that we use in discussing mortgage pricing and then follow us on Twitter.

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Tags: mortgage, trends